Semi Truck values soften as new inventory increases

A year ago prices for late-model — heck, all models of used — semi trucks were stratospheric. The same supply chain disruption that was impacting farm machinery manufacturers was plaguing truck makers, cutting off the supply of new trucks. Buyers who couldn't get new trucks went after late-model vehicles. As a result, the average price for a Class 8 sleeper truck reached an astonishing $90,393 in December 2021, according to J.D. Power.

That was $41,748 more than 2020, despite trucks being 6 months older.

This winter a reversal came with a vengeance! Class 8 semi prices dropped 25%, according to ACT Research. "That was a bit steeper than expected," observes Steve Tam of ACT Research.

The J.D. Power's Commercial Truck Guidelines reports buyers are still snatching up low-hour premium trucks. But when it comes to 2- to 6-year-old sleeper trucks in J.D. Power's benchmark model, average pricing in late winter was as follows:

Compared to a year earlier (February 2022), late-model semis lost a quarter of their market value.

Mitch Helman of Sandhills Global observes, "As truck and semitrailer values shift downward, sellers should closely monitor value trends to keep prices competitive and stay ahead of market changes."

Further evidence that used Class 8 truck prices are soft can be found in the Sandhills Equipment Value Index, which reports heavy-duty truck inventory increased by just over 30% early in 2023. That is the key bit of evidence that semi truck values will continue to soften into the summer and fall. More new trucks are being made, which leads to increased trade-ins. Greatly influencing this trend is the general economy. Continued inflation or a slight recession will slow the demand for trucking, thereby reducing demand for late-model Class 8 vehicles.

The million-dollar question is whether you buy this month or wait until late summer and see what develops. That decision depends on your needs, the age of your current fleet of trucks, and how much crop you need to haul to town this summer. But the chances are good that semi prices will continue to slip into harvest.

Looking beyond the odometer and features when pricing used trucks, particularly those that are longer in the tooth in age and mileage, is always worth the effort.

"A common mistake farmers and the public in general make is not knowing everything there is to know about a particular item," says Bill Nelson of US Auctioneers. "It starts with doing business with a reputable auction company or dealership that will tell you the bad along with the good about a truck."

Nelson, Luke Sullivan of Sullivan Auctioneers, and Tim Meyer of Steffes Group offer the following guidelines to researching a truck's background and condition.

Note how the truck accelerates and decelerates, how it handles, and how the suspension feels. Listen carefully for engine or brake sounds that might indicate an unseen problem.

A great mechanical inspection video can be found here.

Freightliner still leads the Class 8 semi truck market. According to Batista, the share ranking as of 2020 was: